{"id":1281,"date":"2025-03-08T09:56:13","date_gmt":"2025-03-08T01:56:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/?p=1281"},"modified":"2025-03-08T09:56:13","modified_gmt":"2025-03-08T01:56:13","slug":"%e6%9c%b4%e7%b4%a0%e9%80%bb%e8%be%91%e7%9a%8448%e7%a7%8d%e5%85%b8%e5%9e%8b%e8%ae%a4%e7%9f%a5%e6%bc%8f%e6%b4%9e%ef%bc%88%e5%a4%87%e5%bf%98%ef%bc%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/?p=1281","title":{"rendered":"\u6734\u7d20\u903b\u8f91\u768448\u79cd\u5178\u578b\u8ba4\u77e5\u6f0f\u6d1e\uff08\u5907\u5fd8\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u58a8\u82cd\u79bb<br>\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/23204099175<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u6734\u7d20\u903b\u8f91\u768448\u79cd\u5178\u578b\u8ba4\u77e5\u6f0f\u6d1e<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\uff08\u57fa\u4e8e\u975e\u5f62\u5f0f\u903b\u8f91\u8c2c\u8bef\u4e0e\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u7efc\u5408\u5206\u7c7b\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e00\u3001\u57fa\u7840\u63a8\u7406\u7f3a\u9677<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>1\uff0c<strong>\u540e\u6b64\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u56e0\u4e8b\u4ef6A\u5148\u4e8eB\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u5373\u8ba4\u5b9aA\u662fB\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff08\u5982\u201c\u9e21\u9e23\u540e\u592a\u9633\u5347\u8d77\uff0c\u6545\u9e21\u9e23\u5bfc\u81f4\u65e5\u51fa\u201d\uff09<br>2\uff0c<strong>\u7247\u9762\u5f52\u56e0\uff08Texas Sharpshooter\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u9009\u62e9\u6027\u805a\u7126\u652f\u6301\u7ed3\u8bba\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5ffd\u89c6\u53cd\u4f8b\uff08\u5982\u4ec5\u75283\u6708\u6570\u636e\u8bc1\u660e\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u6696\uff09<br>3\uff0c<strong>\u9519\u8bef\u4e8c\u5206\uff08False Dilemma\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u5c06\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\u975e\u6b64\u5373\u5f7c\u7684\u9009\u9879\uff08\u5982\u201c\u4e0d\u7528\u6838\u80fd\u5c31\u53ea\u80fd\u70e7\u7164\u201d\uff09<br>4\uff0c<strong>\u5faa\u73af\u8bba\u8bc1\uff08Circular Reasoning\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7ed3\u8bba\u672c\u8eab\u5df2\u9690\u542b\u5728\u524d\u63d0\u4e2d\uff08\u5982\u201c\u5723\u7ecf\u65e0\u8bef\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u662f\u795e\u7684\u8bdd\u8bed\uff0c\u800c\u795e\u8bf4\u8fc7\u5723\u7ecf\u65e0\u8bef\u201d\uff09<br>5\uff0c<strong>\u5408\u6210\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Composition Fallacy\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5c40\u90e8\u7279\u6027\u5fc5\u7136\u9002\u7528\u4e8e\u6574\u4f53\uff08\u5982\u201c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7403\u5458\u90fd\u5f88\u5f3a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7403\u961f\u4e00\u5b9a\u593a\u51a0\u201d\uff09<br>6\uff0c<strong>\u5206\u89e3\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Division Fallacy\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u5c06\u6574\u4f53\u5c5e\u6027\u9519\u8bef\u8d4b\u4e88\u5c40\u90e8\uff08\u5982\u201c\u4f18\u79c0\u56e2\u961f\u4e2d\u7684\u6210\u5458\u5fc5\u7136\u4f18\u79c0\u201d\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e8c\u3001\u8bc1\u636e\u5904\u7406\u504f\u5dee<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>7\uff0c<strong>\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u8bef\uff08Confirmation Bias\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e3b\u52a8\u5bfb\u627e\u652f\u6301\u65e2\u6709\u89c2\u70b9\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u56de\u907f\u53cd\u9762\u4fe1\u606f\uff08\u5982\u9634\u8c0b\u8bba\u8005\u53ea\u5173\u6ce8\u201c\u53ef\u7591\u201d\u7ebf\u7d22\uff09<br>8\uff0c<strong>\u8f76\u4e8b\u8bc1\u636e\u4f18\u5148\uff08Anecdotal Fallacy\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7528\u4e2a\u522b\u6848\u4f8b\u66ff\u4ee3\u7cfb\u7edf\u7814\u7a76\uff08\u5982\u201c\u6211\u7237\u7237\u62bd\u70df\u6d3b\u523090\u5c81\uff0c\u8bc1\u660e\u5438\u70df\u65e0\u5bb3\u201d\uff09<br>9\uff0c<strong>\u8bc9\u8bf8\u65e0\u77e5\uff08Argument from Ignorance\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u56e0\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bc1\u4f2a\u5373\u8ba4\u5b9a\u771f\u5b9e\uff08\u5982\u201c\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bc1\u660e\u5916\u661f\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5b83\u4eec\u5b58\u5728\u201d\uff09<br>10\uff0c<strong>\u6570\u636e\u8bef\u8bfb\uff08Base Rate Neglect\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u5ffd\u89c6\u57fa\u7840\u6982\u7387\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u9519\u8bef\uff08\u5982\u5ffd\u89c6\u7f55\u89c1\u75c5\u53d1\u75c5\u7387\uff0c\u56e0\u68c0\u6d4b\u9633\u6027\u76f4\u63a5\u6050\u614c\uff09<br>11\uff0c<strong>\u5e78\u5b58\u8005\u504f\u5dee\uff08Survivorship Bias\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u4ec5\u5206\u6790\u6210\u529f\u6837\u672c\u800c\u5ffd\u7565\u5931\u8d25\u8005\uff08\u5982\u201c\u4e8c\u6218\u6218\u673a\u5f39\u5b54\u5206\u5e03\u201d\u7ecf\u5178\u6848\u4f8b\uff09<br>12\uff0c<strong>\u751f\u6001\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Ecological Fallacy\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7528\u7fa4\u4f53\u6570\u636e\u63a8\u65ad\u4e2a\u4f53\u884c\u4e3a\uff08\u5982\u201c\u9ad8\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u793e\u533a\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u90fd\u6709\u72af\u7f6a\u503e\u5411\u201d\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e09\u3001\u60c5\u611f\u4e0e\u6743\u5a01\u5e72\u6270<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>13\uff0c<strong>\u8bc9\u8bf8\u60c5\u611f\uff08Appeal to Emotion\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7528\u60c5\u7eea\u64cd\u63a7\u66ff\u4ee3\u903b\u8f91\u8bba\u8bc1\uff08\u5982\u201c\u4e0d\u652f\u6301\u73af\u4fdd\u653f\u7b56\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u5173\u7231\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u201d\uff09<br>14\uff0c<strong>\u8bc9\u8bf8\u6743\u5a01\uff08Appeal to Authority\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u6ee5\u7528\u6743\u5a01\u80cc\u4e66\uff08\u5982\u201c\u67d0\u660e\u661f\u63a8\u8350\u4fdd\u5065\u54c1\uff0c\u6545\u5176\u6709\u6548\u201d\uff09<br>15\uff0c<strong>\u8bc9\u8bf8\u4f20\u7edf\uff08Appeal to Tradition\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u56e0\u5386\u53f2\u60a0\u4e45\u5373\u8ba4\u5b9a\u5408\u7406\uff08\u5982\u201c\u4e2d\u533b\u5b58\u5728\u5343\u5e74\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u65e0\u9700\u73b0\u4ee3\u9a8c\u8bc1\u201d\uff09<br>16\uff0c<strong>\u8bc9\u8bf8\u65b0\u6f6e\uff08Appeal to Novelty\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u5fc5\u7136\u4f18\u8d8a\uff08\u5982\u201c\u533a\u5757\u94fe\u4e07\u80fd\u8bba\u201d\uff09<br>17\uff0c<strong>\u60c5\u611f\u66ff\u4ee3\uff08Affective Heuristic\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u56e0\u559c\u597d\u5f71\u54cd\u98ce\u9669\u8bc4\u4f30\uff08\u5982\u201c\u559c\u6b22\u67d0\u54c1\u724c\u5c31\u8ba4\u5b9a\u5176\u4ea7\u54c1\u5b89\u5168\u201d\uff09<br>18\uff0c<strong>\u5149\u73af\u6548\u5e94\uff08Halo Effect\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u56e0\u67d0\u4e00\u4f18\u70b9\u63a8\u5b9a\u6574\u4f53\u4f18\u79c0\uff08\u5982\u201c\u540d\u6821\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\u5fc5\u7136\u80fd\u529b\u5f3a\u201d\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u56db\u3001\u8bed\u8a00\u4e0e\u6846\u67b6\u9677\u9631<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>19\uff0c<strong>\u8bed\u4e49\u6a21\u7cca\uff08Equivocation\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u5229\u7528\u591a\u4e49\u8bcd\u6df7\u6dc6\u6982\u5ff5\uff08\u5982\u201c\u4eba\u6743\u5305\u542b\u751f\u5b58\u6743\uff0c\u6545\u6740\u4eba\u72af\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u6743\u5e94\u514d\u6b7b\u201d\uff09<br>20\uff0c<strong>\u7a3b\u8349\u4eba\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Straw Man\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u66f2\u89e3\u5bf9\u65b9\u8bba\u70b9\u518d\u52a0\u4ee5\u53cd\u9a73\uff08\u5982\u5c06\u201c\u51cf\u5c11\u78b3\u6392\u653e\u201d\u6b6a\u66f2\u4e3a\u201c\u7981\u6b62\u5de5\u4e1a\u53d1\u5c55\u201d\uff09<br>21\uff0c<strong>\u6ed1\u5761\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Slippery Slope\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u65e0\u5408\u7406\u56e0\u679c\u94fe\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u63a8\u65ad\uff08\u5982\u201c\u5141\u8bb8\u540c\u6027\u5a5a\u59fb\u5c06\u5bfc\u81f4\u4eba\u517d\u5a5a\u59fb\u5408\u6cd5\u5316\u201d\uff09<br>22\uff0c<strong>\u6846\u67b6\u6548\u5e94\uff08Framing Effect\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u540c\u4e00\u4e8b\u5b9e\u56e0\u8868\u8ff0\u65b9\u5f0f\u6539\u53d8\u8ba4\u77e5\uff08\u5982\u201c\u624b\u672f\u6210\u529f\u738790%\u201d vs \u201c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u738710%\u201d\uff09<br>23\uff0c<strong>\u8bef\u7528\u7c7b\u6bd4\uff08False Analogy\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u5ffd\u7565\u5173\u952e\u5dee\u5f02\u7684\u7c7b\u6bd4\u63a8\u7406\uff08\u5982\u201c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5982\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u5fc5\u987b\u7531\u5bb6\u957f\u72ec\u88c1\u201d\uff09<br>24\uff0c<strong>\u8bed\u4e49\u8bf1\u5bfc\uff08Loaded Language\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7528\u60c5\u611f\u8bcd\u6c47\u64cd\u63a7\u5224\u65ad\uff08\u5982\u201c\u91ce\u86ee\u62c6\u8fc1\u201d vs \u201c\u57ce\u5e02\u66f4\u65b0\u201d\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e94\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>25\uff0c<strong>\u4ece\u4f17\u504f\u8bef\uff08Bandwagon Fallacy\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u56e0\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u8ba4\u540c\u5373\u8ba4\u5b9a\u6b63\u786e\uff08\u5982\u201c\u5168\u740360%\u4eba\u4fe1\u6559\uff0c\u6545\u795e\u5b58\u5728\u201d\uff09<br>26\uff0c<strong>\u7fa4\u4f53\u6781\u5316\uff08Group Polarization\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7fa4\u4f53\u8ba8\u8bba\u5f3a\u5316\u6781\u7aef\u7acb\u573a\uff08\u5982\u7f51\u7edc\u66b4\u529b\u5347\u7ea7\uff09<br>27\uff0c<strong>\u9006\u706b\u6548\u5e94\uff08Backfire Effect\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u53cd\u9762\u8bc1\u636e\u53cd\u800c\u52a0\u5f3a\u539f\u6709\u9519\u8bef\u4fe1\u5ff5<br>28\uff0c<strong>\u8fbe\u514b\u6548\u5e94\uff08Dunning-Kruger Effect\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u4f4e\u80fd\u529b\u8005\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u8eab\u8ba4\u77e5\u6c34\u5e73<br>29\uff0c<strong>\u57fa\u672c\u5f52\u56e0\u9519\u8bef\uff08Fundamental Attribution Error\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u9ad8\u4f30\u4e2a\u4eba\u7279\u8d28\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f4e\u4f30\u60c5\u5883\u56e0\u7d20\uff08\u5982\u201c\u7a77\u4eba\u56e0\u61d2\u60f0\u81f4\u8d2b\u201d\uff09<br>30\uff0c<strong>\u516c\u6b63\u4e16\u754c\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Just-World Fallacy\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u53d7\u5bb3\u5fc5\u6709\u8fc7\u9519\uff08\u5982\u201c\u88ab\u6027\u4fb5\u8005\u56e0\u7a7f\u7740\u66b4\u9732\u201d\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u516d\u3001\u6982\u7387\u4e0e\u7edf\u8ba1\u76f2\u533a<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>31\uff0c<strong>\u8d4c\u5f92\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Gambler&#8217;s Fallacy\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u8bef\u8ba4\u72ec\u7acb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5173\u8054\u6027\uff08\u5982\u201c\u8fde\u5f005\u6b21\u5927\uff0c\u4e0b\u6b21\u5fc5\u5f00\u5c0f\u201d\uff09<br>32\uff0c<strong>\u70ed\u624b\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Hot Hand Fallacy\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u9ad8\u4f30\u8fde\u80dc\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u6027\uff08\u5982\u201c\u7403\u5458\u8fde\u7eed\u5f97\u5206\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u624b\u611f\u706b\u70ed\u201d\uff09<br>33\uff0c<strong>\u5ffd\u7565\u6837\u672c\u91cf\uff08Law of Small Numbers\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7528\u5c0f\u6837\u672c\u5f97\u51fa\u666e\u904d\u7ed3\u8bba\uff08\u5982\u201c\u65b0\u836f3\u4eba\u8bd5\u7528\u6709\u6548\u5373\u63a8\u5e7f\u201d\uff09<br>34\uff0c<strong>\u8f9b\u666e\u68ee\u6096\u8bba\uff08Simpson&#8217;s Paradox\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u5206\u7ec4\u6570\u636e\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e0e\u6574\u4f53\u76f8\u53cd\uff08\u5982\u67d0\u836f\u5728\u5404\u4e9a\u7ec4\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u4f53\u65e0\u6548\uff09<br>35\uff0c<strong>\u5747\u503c\u56de\u5f52\uff08Regression to the Mean\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u5c06\u81ea\u7136\u6ce2\u52a8\u8bef\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5e72\u9884\u6548\u679c\uff08\u5982\u4e25\u5389\u60e9\u7f5a\u540e\u5b66\u751f\u6210\u7ee9\u201c\u63d0\u5347\u201d\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e03\u3001\u51b3\u7b56\u4e0e\u884c\u4e3a\u6f0f\u6d1e<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>36\uff0c<strong>\u6c89\u6ca1\u6210\u672c\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Sunk Cost Fallacy\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u56e0\u5df2\u6295\u5165\u8d44\u6e90\u7ee7\u7eed\u9519\u8bef\u51b3\u7b56\uff08\u5982\u201c\u4e8f\u635f\u80a1\u7968\u4e0d\u80af\u629b\u552e\u201d\uff09<br>37\uff0c<strong>\u951a\u5b9a\u6548\u5e94\uff08Anchoring Effect\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u606f\u8fc7\u5ea6\u5f71\u54cd\u540e\u7eed\u5224\u65ad\uff08\u5982\u5148\u770b\u9ad8\u4ef7\u540e\u89c9\u4f4e\u4ef7\u5212\u7b97\uff09<br>38\uff0c<strong>\u73b0\u72b6\u504f\u597d\uff08Status Quo Bias\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u975e\u7406\u6027\u7ef4\u6301\u5f53\u524d\u72b6\u6001\uff08\u5982\u9ed8\u8ba4\u9009\u9879\u8bbe\u7f6e\u5bf9\u5668\u5b98\u6350\u732e\u7387\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff09<br>39\uff0c<strong>\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\uff08Loss Aversion\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u5bf9\u635f\u5931\u7684\u6050\u60e7\u538b\u5012\u6536\u76ca\u53ef\u80fd\uff08\u5982\u5b81\u53ef\u4e0d\u8d5a100\u5143\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u613f\u4e8f50\u5143\uff09<br>40\uff0c<strong>\u53ef\u5f97\u6027\u542f\u53d1\uff08Availability Heuristic\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7528\u6613\u56de\u5fc6\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8bc4\u4f30\u6982\u7387\uff08\u5982\u9ad8\u4f30\u7a7a\u96be\u98ce\u9669\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u516b\u3001\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bef\u5224<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>41\uff0c<strong>\u7ebf\u6027\u5916\u63a8\u8c2c\u8bef\uff08Linear Extrapolation\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u5ffd\u89c6\u590d\u6742\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u5982\u201c\u4eba\u53e3\u6309\u5f53\u524d\u589e\u901f\u767e\u5e74\u540e\u7206\u70b8\u201d\uff09<br>42\uff0c<strong>\u5c40\u90e8\u4f18\u5316\u9677\u9631\uff08Suboptimization\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u8ffd\u6c42\u5b50\u7cfb\u7edf\u6700\u4f18\u635f\u5bb3\u6574\u4f53\uff08\u5982KPI\u9a71\u52a8\u4e0b\u7684\u90e8\u95e8\u5bf9\u7acb\uff09<br>43\uff0c<strong>\u5ffd\u7565\u53cd\u9988\u5ef6\u8fdf\uff08Delay Ignorance\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u672a\u8003\u8651\u884c\u52a8\u4e0e\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u65f6\u6ede\uff08\u5982\u73af\u4fdd\u653f\u7b56\u77ed\u671f\u672a\u89c1\u6548\u5373\u653e\u5f03\uff09<br>44\uff0c<strong>\u7cfb\u7edf\u5f52\u56e0\u7b80\u5316\uff08Reductionism\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u7528\u5355\u4e00\u56e0\u7d20\u89e3\u91ca\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u8c61\uff08\u5982\u201c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5371\u673a\u6e90\u4e8e\u8d2a\u5a6a\u201d\uff09<br>45\uff0c<strong>\u6307\u6807\u626d\u66f2\uff08Goodhart&#8217;s Law\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u4f18\u5316\u6d4b\u91cf\u6307\u6807\u5bfc\u81f4\u76ee\u6807\u504f\u79bb\uff08\u5982\u5b66\u6821\u4e3a\u5347\u5b66\u7387\u538b\u5236\u7d20\u8d28\u6559\u80b2\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e5d\u3001\u5143\u8ba4\u77e5\u7f3a\u9677<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>46\uff0c<strong>\u8ba4\u77e5\u95ed\u5408\u9700\u6c42\uff08Need for Closure\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e3a\u6c42\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u63a5\u53d7\u4f4e\u8d28\u91cf\u7b54\u6848<br>47\uff0c<strong>\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u6548\u5e94\uff08Overconfidence Effect\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u9ad8\u4f30\u81ea\u8eab\u5224\u65ad\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff08\u598290%\u53f8\u673a\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6280\u672f\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff09<br>48\uff0c<strong>\u77e5\u8bc6\u8bc5\u5492\uff08Curse of Knowledge\uff09<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e13\u5bb6\u65e0\u6cd5\u7406\u89e3\u65b0\u624b\u8ba4\u77e5\u76f2\u533a\uff08\u5982\u6559\u6388\u7528\u672f\u8bed\u5411\u516c\u4f17\u79d1\u666e\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u8ba4\u77e5\u4fee\u590d\u6846\u67b6<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u53cc\u76f2\u68c0\u9a8c<\/strong>\uff1a\u4e3b\u52a8\u5bfb\u627e\u8bc1\u4f2a\u8bc1\u636e<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u66f4\u65b0<\/strong>\uff1a\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u6574\u6982\u7387\u5224\u65ad<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7cfb\u7edf\u56fe\u8c31<\/strong>\uff1a\u7528\u56e0\u679c\u56de\u8def\u56fe\u63ed\u793a\u591a\u91cd\u5173\u8054<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u53cd\u4e8b\u5b9e\u63a8\u6f14<\/strong>\uff1a\u8bbe\u60f3\u4e0d\u540c\u6761\u4ef6\u4e0b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5173\u952e\u7ed3\u8bba<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6734\u7d20\u903b\u8f91\u7684\u6f0f\u6d1e\u672c\u8d28\u662f<strong>\u8ba4\u77e5\u8282\u80fd\u673a\u5236<\/strong>\u4e0e<strong>\u590d\u6742\u73b0\u5b9e\u7684\u51b2\u7a81<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56db\u79cd\u5173\u952e\u68c0\u67e5\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u903b\u8f91\u8bed\u6cd5\u68c0\u67e5<\/strong>\uff08\u8bc6\u522b\u5f62\u5f0f\u8c2c\u8bef\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u8bc1\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u8bc4\u4f30<\/strong>\uff08\u68c0\u9a8c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e0e\u504f\u5dee\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7cfb\u7edf\u601d\u7ef4\u8bad\u7ec3<\/strong>\uff08\u7406\u89e3\u591a\u5c42\u7ea7\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u4fe1\u68c0\u9a8c<\/strong>\uff08\u591a\u89d2\u5ea6\u68c0\u9a8c\u4fe1\u6548\u5ea6\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u58a8\u82cd\u79bb\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/zhuanlan.zhihu.com\/p\/23204099175 \u6734\u7d20\u903b\u8f91\u7684 &#8230; <a title=\"\u6734\u7d20\u903b\u8f91\u768448\u79cd\u5178\u578b\u8ba4\u77e5\u6f0f\u6d1e\uff08\u5907\u5fd8\uff09\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/?p=1281\" aria-label=\"\u9605\u8bfb \u6734\u7d20\u903b\u8f91\u768448\u79cd\u5178\u578b\u8ba4\u77e5\u6f0f\u6d1e\uff08\u5907\u5fd8\uff09\">\u9605\u8bfb\u66f4\u591a<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[752,534],"class_list":["post-1281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-7","tag-752","tag-534"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1281"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1281\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1282,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1281\/revisions\/1282"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}