{"id":1892,"date":"2026-01-11T11:20:17","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T03:20:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/?p=1892"},"modified":"2026-01-11T11:20:18","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T03:20:18","slug":"%e8%af%b7%e8%af%b4%e5%87%ba%e4%b8%80%e4%b8%aa%e5%af%b9%e4%ba%ba%e6%9e%81%e5%85%b6%e9%87%8d%e8%a6%81%e3%80%81%e7%ae%80%e5%8d%95%e3%80%81%e5%ae%9e%e7%94%a8%ef%bc%8c%e4%bd%86%e5%b8%b8%e8%a2%ab%e5%bf%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/?p=1892","title":{"rendered":"\u8bf7\u8bf4\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u4eba\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3001\u7b80\u5355\u3001\u5b9e\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u5e38\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u5018\u82e5\u4f60\u7ecf\u5e38\u7126\u8651\u3001\u5185\u8017\u3001\u62c5\u5fc3\u505a\u4e0d\u597d\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u4f60\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e3a\u201c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u652f\u4ed8\u9ad8\u989d\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3002<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eba\u548c\u4eba\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u5dee\u8ddd\u5728\u4e8e\u667a\u5546\u3001\u60c5\u5546\u6216\u8005\u8d44\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4eba\u90fd\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u662f<strong>\u3010\u6a21\u7cca\u8010\u53d7\u5ea6\u3011\uff08Ambiguity Tolerance\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5728\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u65e9\u5c31\u88ab\u8868\u8fbe\uff08Else Frenkel-Brunswik, 1949\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\u88ab\u65e0\u89c6\u6216\u4e0d\u4f1a\u81ea\u6211\u89c9\u5bdf\u7684\u611f\u5ff5\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7b80\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4f60\u5728\u9762\u5bf9\u4fe1\u606f\u7f3a\u5931\u3001\u89c4\u5219\u4e0d\u660e\u3001\u524d\u666f\u6df7\u6c8c\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u65f6\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u4f1a\u4e60\u60ef\u6027\u611f\u5230\u7126\u8651\u5e76\u8bd5\u56fe\u5bfb\u627e\u201c\u6807\u51c6\u7b54\u6848\u201d\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fdd\u6301\u7406\u6027\u4e0e\u6e05\u9192\u7684\u8fdb\u884c\u68b3\u7406\u548c\u8c03\u7814\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u4fdd\u6301\u5fc3\u6001\u7684\u5e73\u9759\u548c\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u81ea\u9a71\u529b\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7edd\u5927\u591a\u6570\u88ab\u6709\u610f\u65e0\u610f\u8bad\u7ec3\u6210\u201c\u505a\u9898\u5bb6\u201d\u6216\u8005\u201c\u4ece\u4f17\u8005\u201d\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4f4e\u6a21\u7cca\u8010\u53d7\u8005\u3002\u8fd9\u8ddf\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5b66\u5386\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u5730\u4f4d\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u8eab\u4efd\u4ee5\u53ca\u638c\u63e1\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u5173\u8054\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u800c<strong>\u6a21\u7cca\u8010\u53d7\u5ea6\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u4ee3\u4ef7\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u7684\u88ab\u2018\u8ffd\u6c42\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u2019\u7684\u672c\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u5265\u524a\uff0c\u652f\u4ed8\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8d44\u6e90\u3001\u8ba4\u77e5\u8d44\u6e90\u3001\u8d22\u52a1\u8d44\u6e90\u53bb\u5bfb\u6c42\u201c\u5b89\u5168\u201d<\/strong>\uff0c\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5b89\u5168\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5b9e\u7136\u4e2d\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u4ece\u5c0f\u5b66\u5230\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u5341\u51e0\u5e74\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6781\u4f4e\u71b5\uff08Low Entropy\uff09\u7684\u4eba\u9020\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6bcf\u4e00\u9053\u9898\u90fd\u6709\u6807\u51c6\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u95e8\u8bfe\u90fd\u6709\u6559\u5b66\u5927\u7eb2\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u5b66\u671f\u90fd\u6709\u660e\u786e\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8282\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u5bfc\u81f4\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5927\u8111\u88ab\u9a6f\u5316\u6210\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u201c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f9d\u8d56\u201d\u7684\u751f\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u91cc\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff1a\u53ea\u8981\u6211\u8f93\u5165\u4e86\u52aa\u529b\uff08Input\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u5fc5\u7136\u3001\u7acb\u523b\u3001\u786e\u5b9a\u5730\u5f97\u5230\u53cd\u9988\uff08Output\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c<strong>\u771f\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\uff08The Real World\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9ad8\u71b5\u3001\u6df7\u6c8c\u3001\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4f1a\u53d7\u5230\u3010\u53cd\u8eab\u6027\u3011\u548c\u3010\u5408\u6210\u6096\u8bba\u3011\u7b49\u7b49\u7684\u5e38\u9a7b\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u7eb2\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u6807\u51c6\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5f53\u4f60\u6309\u7167\u6240\u8c13\u9ad8\u4eba\u7684\u653b\u7565\u505a\u5bf9\u4e86\u6240\u6709\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f9d\u7136\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e60\u60ef\u4e86\u201c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u7684\u5b66\u751f\u8fdb\u5165\u201c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u201d\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6392\u5f02\u53cd\u5e94\u3002 \u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\uff1a<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u603b\u60f3\u627e\u4eba\u95ee\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u4e8b\u513f\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u505a\uff1f\u6709\u6ca1\u6709\u6559\u7a0b\uff1f\u201d\uff08\u5bfb\u6c42SOP\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u603b\u60f3\u95ee\u8001\u677f\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u8fd9\u4e48\u505a\u80fd\u6da8\u85aa\u5417\uff1f\u201d\uff08\u5bfb\u6c42\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u53cd\u9988\uff09<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4e0d\u6562\u5c1d\u8bd5\u6ca1\u6709\u5148\u4f8b\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5bb3\u6015\u201c\u72af\u9519\u201d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u5546\u4e1a\u548c\u535a\u5f08\u7684\u5e95\u5c42\u903b\u8f91\u91cc\uff0c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff08Certainty\uff09\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6781\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u3002 \u65e2\u7136\u4f60\u65e0\u6cd5\u5fcd\u53d7\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u4f1a\u6709\u4eba\u7ad9\u51fa\u6765\uff0c\u66ff\u4f60\u627f\u62c5\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5411\u4f60\u6536\u53d6\u9ad8\u989d\u7684\u201c\u4fdd\u9669\u8d39\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u90a3\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5982\u4e0b\u4e3e\u4f8b\u201c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u5728\u793e\u4f1a\u5206\u5de5\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4f60\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6253\u5de5\uff1f\u8001\u677f\u627f\u62c5\u4e86\u5e02\u573a\u6ce2\u52a8\u3001\u4ea7\u54c1\u5931\u8d25\u3001\u8d44\u91d1\u94fe\u65ad\u88c2\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff08\u98ce\u9669\uff09\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8ba9\u4f60\u5b89\u5fc3\u5e72\u6d3b\uff0c\u7ed9\u4f60\u53d1\u4e00\u4efd\u867d\u7136\u4e0d\u591a\u4f46\u975e\u5e38\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u5de5\u8d44\uff0c\u4f60\u83b7\u5f97\u4e86\u201c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u3002\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4f60\u4e3a\u4e86\u8d2d\u4e70\u8fd9\u4efd\u201c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\uff0c\u628a\u4f60\u521b\u9020\u7684\u5269\u4f59\u4ef7\u503c\uff08\u672c\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u66b4\u5bcc\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff09\u4f4e\u4ef7\u6298\u8ba9\u7ed9\u4e86\u8001\u677f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u98ce\u9669\u6ea2\u4ef7\uff08Risk Premium\uff09\u7684\u8f6c\u79fb\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4f1a\u9677\u5165\u90a3\u79cd\u201c\u65e0\u8111\u8ddf\u5355\u201d\u3001\u201c\u4fdd\u672c\u7406\u8d22\u201d\u3001\u201c\u8003\u8bc1\u5305\u8fc7\u201d\u7684\u9a97\u5c40\uff1f\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u201c\u6a21\u7cca\u201d\u7684\u6050\u60e7\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4f60\u5bf9\u4e8e\u201c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u7684\u6781\u5f3a\u7684\u671f\u671b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u6f5c\u610f\u8bc6\u4e2d\u4e0d\u613f\u610f\u53bb\u6233\u7834\u8fd9\u79cd\u2018\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u2019\u8c0e\u8a00\uff08\u5e0c\u671b\u662f\u771f\u7684\u56e0\u800c\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u7531\u201c\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u201d\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u5185\u8017\u548c\u7126\u8651\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9a97\u5c40\u7684\u5ba3\u4f20\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u5728\u901a\u8fc7\u51e0\u4e2a\u6f0f\u6597\u7b5b\u9009\u51fa\u6a21\u7cca\u8010\u53d7\u5ea6\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4eba\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u652f\u4ed8\u8d85\u989d\u4ee3\u4ef7\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6a21\u7cca\u8010\u53d7\u5ea6\u4f1a\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u975e\u5e38\u660e\u663e\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5f71\u54cd\u548c\u53d9\u4e8b\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u5bf9\u6a21\u7cca\u4e0d\u8010\u53d7\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u628a\u6a21\u7cca\u60c5\u5883\u89c6\u4e3a\u5a01\u80c1\uff08Threat\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u60b2\u89c2\u5316\/\u707e\u96be\u5316\u53d9\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\uff0c\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u662f\u6210\u5e74\u4eba\uff0c\u4f46\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6a21\u7cca\u8010\u53d7\u5ea6\u4e25\u91cd\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u901a\u5e38\uff0c\u9047\u5230\u4efb\u4f55\u76f8\u5bf9\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6216\u8005\u4e0d\u591f\u719f\u6089\u7684\u9886\u57df\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4eba\u671f\u671b\u7531\u7236\u6bcd\uff08\u6216\u66ff\u4ee3\u7236\u6bcd\u89d2\u8272\u7684\u9886\u5bfc\u3001\u4e13\u5bb6\u3001\u914d\u5076\uff09\u628a\u98df\u7269\u56bc\u788e\u4e86\uff08\u628a\u4fe1\u606f\u660e\u786e\u5316\uff09\u5582\u5230\u5634\u91cc\u3002 \u53ea\u8981\u4fe1\u606f\u7a0d\u5fae\u6709\u4e00\u70b9\u9897\u7c92\u5ea6\uff08Granularity\uff09\u4e0d\u660e\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u9677\u5165\u7126\u8651\/\u6050\u60e7\u6216\u8005\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eba\/\u793e\u4f1a\u7684\u6307\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u800c\u9ad8\u6a21\u7cca\u8010\u53d7\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u628a\u6a21\u7cca\u60c5\u5883\u89c6\u4e3a\u673a\u4f1a\uff08Opportunity\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u4e2d\u7acb\u5316\/\u4e50\u89c2\u5316\u53d9\u4e8b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u5168\u77e5\u5168\u80fd\u7684\u89c6\u89d2\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u83b7\u5f97\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u8fdb\u884c\u63a8\u6f14\u3001\u8c03\u7814\uff0c\u5e76\u5f00\u59cb\uff08\u635f\u5931\u53ef\u63a7\uff09\u7684\u5b9e\u8df5\uff0c\u5e76\u4ece\u5b9e\u8df5\u7684\u53cd\u9988\u548c\u590d\u76d8\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fdb\u884c\u52a8\u6001\u8c03\u6574\u8fed\u4ee3\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53\u6240\u6709\u4fe1\u606f\u90fd\u6e05\u6670\u53ef\u89c1\u65f6\uff0c\u673a\u4f1a\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\u65e9\u5c31\u5173\u95ed\u4e86\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u90a3\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u7ea2\u5229\u6700\u80a5\u7f8e\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u90a3\u4e9b\u6562\u4e8e\u5728\u6a21\u7cca\u4e2d\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u4eba\u62ff\u8d70\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u9ed8\u82cd\u79bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.zhihu.com\/question\/1991499375239782670\/answer\/1992622882954687289<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5018\u82e5\u4f60\u7ecf\u5e38\u7126\u8651\u3001\u5185\u8017\u3001\u62c5\u5fc3\u505a\u4e0d\u597d\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\uff1a \u4f60\u5728\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e3a\u201c\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u201d\u652f\u4ed8\u9ad8\u989d\u6ea2\u4ef7\u3002 \u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8bef\u4ee5\u4e3a\uff0c\u4eba &#8230; <a title=\"\u8bf7\u8bf4\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u4eba\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3001\u7b80\u5355\u3001\u5b9e\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u5e38\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff1f\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/?p=1892\" aria-label=\"\u9605\u8bfb \u8bf7\u8bf4\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a\u5bf9\u4eba\u6781\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u3001\u7b80\u5355\u3001\u5b9e\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u5e38\u88ab\u5ffd\u7565\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\uff1f\">\u9605\u8bfb\u66f4\u591a<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-7"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1892","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1892"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1892\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1893,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1892\/revisions\/1893"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1892"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1892"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.road-trip.cc\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1892"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}